Global Situation Report: How is the Outbreak Growing?
Highlights: Feb 1, 2020
The main driver of transmission, based on currently available data, is symptomatic cases. WHO is aware of possible transmission of 2019-nCoV from infected people before they developed symptoms. Detailed exposure histories are being taken to better understand the pre-clinical phase of infection and how the transmission may have occurred in these few instances. Asymptomatic infection may be rare, and transmission from an asymptomatic person is very rare with other coronaviruses, as we have seen with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus. Thus, transmission from asymptomatic cases is likely not a major driver of transmission. Persons who are symptomatic will spread the virus more readily through coughing and sneezing.
Notable Epidemiological Events Reported in the Last 24 Hours:
In France, for the first time outside China, a healthcare worker was diagnosed as being ill with 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease. The health worker treated two patients who were later identified as probable cases.
The first instance of third-generation human-to-human transmission outside China has been identified, in an individual who was exposed to a confirmed case from the cluster in Bavaria, Germany.
For the first time, a case was exported from a country other than China: a patient was identified in South Korea following their exposure in Japan to a confirmed case.
In the last 24 hours, additional instances of human-to-human transmission outside China were reported: in Japan, a tour guide who is part of the same cluster of Japanese cases who had contact with tourists from Wuhan; in Germany, a case that is part of the cluster in Bavaria; and in Thailand, a taxi driver who had no travel history to China.
Epidemiological link to Hubei Province:
The outbreak of 2019-nCoV is still largely centered around Hubei Province.
In China, 60.5% of all cases since the start of the outbreak have been reported from Hubei Province. The remaining 39.5% of cases have been reported from 33 provinces, regions, and cities. After Hubei Province, the second largest number of cases has been reported from Zhejiang Province (599 cases).
Of the 132 cases identified outside China, 14 were due to secondary transmission outside China. Of the remaining cases, travel history is available for 101 of them: all 101 had traveled to China in the 14 days before illness onset. Of the 81 for whom the exact destination in China was known, all had traveled to Hubei province.
Source: The World Health Organization